Key Milestone Reached as Low-Carbon Renewable Power Set to Overtake Fossil Fuels In the UK

According to a new report from global energy think tank Ember, low-carbon renewable power is on course to overtake fossil fuel generation in the UK for the first full year. Ember’s report is based on 11 months of statistics and forecasts for December. In this report, low-carbon renewable energy refers to wind (onshore and offshore), solar photovoltaic power, and hydropower, and excludes biomass. Ember forecasts are based on historical demand and generation data. There are many contributory factors to reaching this major milestone with rising renewables, lower demand, and cheaper power imports helping to reduce fossil fuel use to record lows.

Ember claims that wind power is close to becoming the single largest source of UK power for the first time and that for the first full year wind, solar, and hydropower will generate more electricity than all fossil fuels combined. Depending on December’s weather conditions, wind could overtake gas as the UK’s largest source of electricity in 2024. It’s too close to call at the moment. Wind power in the UK is currently forecast to generate 29% of UK electricity in 2024 equalling 82TWh which is only 3TWh less than fossil gas (85TWh, 30%).

Low-carbon renewable sources are set to reach a record high in 2024, generating 37% of UK electricity (103TWh), overtaking fossil fuels at 35% (97TWh) for the first time. This shows significant progress from just 3 years ago, in 2021, when fossil fuels generated 46% of UK electricity while low-carbon renewables generated 27%.

Ember’s report looks at power generation statistics for the UK across 2024. The UK saw the closure of its last coal power station in October 2024 which is a huge milestone to have reached. Coal began to decline rapidly from 2012 and since 2020, coal power has made up just 2% of power generation in the UK, which has now dropped to zero.

There has also been a gradual decline in gas generation since 2016. 2024 has seen a big decrease in fossil gas power which provided 30% of electricity (85 TWh), down from 34% in 2023 (98 TWh). 

Biomass is still being classified as clean power in the UK. Statistics in 2020 show that renewables overtook fossil fuels for the first time, but this included biomass. In the following year when biomass production fell fossil fuel power overtook renewables, but renewables overtook fossil fuels again in 2023. Ember’s analysis flags concerns about biomass given the significant emissions risks and lack of domestic pellet production. Bioenergy, which includes biomass and biogas power, remains set to provide 14% of UK electricity in 2024.

Fossil fuel generation in 2024 has dropped by two-thirds since 2020 as coal power has been phased out and gas increasingly replaced by cheaper, cleaner power sources. Ember is predicting that gas power will decrease by 13% (-13 TWh) in 2024 when compared to the previous year. 
 Senior energy and climate analyst for the UK at Ember, Frankie Mayo said: 

"The renewables future is here. This long-awaited milestone is a testament to how much progress the UK has made. It’s time to seize the moment, to cut reliance on expensive gas with new renewables, storage, and grid upgrades. With the phase-out of coal power completed this year, reducing gas use is the next big opportunity for the country."

The main reason for the increase in UK wind generation can be accredited to a large increase in generation from onshore wind. There was a 23% increase in onshore wind generation in the first three quarters of 2024 which is the second-largest percentage growth since 2017. This was due to slightly increased capacity and improved wind speeds. In 2024, there has been an increase in UK onshore wind capacity of 590 MW, with a further 78 MW targeting completion before the start of 2025. Most of the newly installed capacity at 443 MW comes from the onshore Viking Wind Farm on Shetland which was completed in September 2024. The de facto onshore wind ban was lifted in July 2024. This is expected to lead to an increased deployment rate in the near-medium term in England as part of the progression towards a clean power system in 2030. 

The UK’s trend of long-term reductions in electricity consumption continued in 2024 with demand in the first three quarters being at its second lowest in the last 30 years. It’s worth noting that electricity consumption in July and August 2024 was the lowest for those months since 1995. However, if you compare 2023 and 2024 electricity demand has stayed roughly the same with 2024 only 1% higher overall. 

Now that the last coal plant has closed, the path to clean power in 2030 is focusing more on reducing reliance on fossil gas in the power system. Clean power development means that the UK can cut its reliance on expensive gas imports while keeping network security, supported by energy storage and interconnection with neighbouring countries.

Fossil fuel use has been reduced in recent years due to a few different factors coming together, including increased renewables, low electricity demand, and higher net power imports. Electrification is expected to contribute to greater electricity demand in the years to come and net import flows will depend on the market signals between interconnected countries. Overall, it's clear that expensive gas power is targeted to decline to below 5% of total generation by 2030 in line with clean power targets, down from 30% in 2024. 

The figures in the report also showed that currently, the UK is a net importer of electricity, but with further increases in clean power, it is projected to become a net exporter of power by 2030.

The UK government has set a target for 95% of electricity generation to be low carbon by the end of the decade. To meet that target, huge investment both in the electricity grid and in new infrastructure, such as a massive expansion in offshore wind farms will be required. Carbon capture is also key to their plans though it is as yet unproven at the scale and efficiency needed. 

Kelly Becker, UK and Ireland president at Schneider Electric, reacted to the Ember report by saying: 

“The UK has the wind in its sails, with renewable energy set to overtake fossil fuels for the first time this year. This marks a significant milestone towards the government’s Clean Power 2030 ambition and firmly positions the UK as a global leader in tackling climate change. However, there is still a long way to go before we can reach our wider emissions reduction targets. There need to be concrete plans for wider sectoral decarbonisation – namely industrial and building decarbonisation. Digitalisation will be key to this, and we need greater coordination between government and business to increase the uptake of digital technologies for energy efficiency and productivity. The energy transition will not only reduce environmental impact but will also unlock economic growth as well as job creation – with our research finding 247,000 jobs can be created in the UK by adopting clean energy technologies across the UK's building stock. This will be crucial for the UK's progress towards a more sustainable and technologically advanced future.”